EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
This table lists the earthquake predictions that Zhonghao Shou have submitted to the local USGS (Pasadena) since February 13, 1994 Under construction. When completed, there will be a link to each of the predictions with
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Prediction | Earthquake Prediction | Actual Earthquake | Prob. | ||||||||
# | Date | Time | Location | Magnitude ML | Time | Location | Magnitude | ||||
51 | 7/14/00 | 7/14~8/7 | 32~39N, 114W, California & Its Neighborhoods | >=6 | 8/9 11:41 | x | 18.19,-102.3, Mexico | x | 6.4 | V | 4.3 |
52 | 3/20/01 | 3/20~4/20 | 38.2~40.7N, 124~126W, N California & Its ocean | >=4.5 | 4/20 5:19 | V | 40.62,-125.4, Off coast of N California | V | 4.5 | V | 21.1 |
53 | 3/21/01 | 3/21~4/1 | 38.5~40.5N, >120W, N California & Its ocean | >=4.5 | 3/22 21:22 | V | 40.35,-126.4, Off coast of N California | V | 4.6 | V | 12.0 |
54 | 4/5/01 | 4/5~4/30 | 36~43N, 25~36E, Turkey & its neighborhoods | >= 5.5 ML | 5/1 6:00 or 4/30 22:00 LA Times | V | 35.88,27.22, Greece | V | 5.3 mb | V | 6.4 |
55 | 4/26/01 | 4/28~5/18 | 40~52N, >122W, W USA, Canada & their ocean | a M5 or two M4 | 5/2 2:05 | V | 50.22,-129.68, Off coast of Canada | V | 5.1 | V | aM4: 63.8, aM5: 27.5 |
56 | 5/9/01 | 5/9~5/20 | 33~36N, 117~120W | >=5 | 5/17 21:53, 22:56 | V | 35.78,-118.044; 35.80,-118.046 S CA | V | 4.0, 4.2 | x | 13.1 |
57 | 4/4/01 | 4/3~7/2 | "E" Hollister, Central CA | M4 | 7/2 17:33 | V | 36.69,-121.33, at "E" Hollister, Central CA exactly | V | 4.1 | V | 10.2 |
58 | 7/31/01 | 8/20~9/27 | 42~53N, >112W Canada | >=6 | 9/14 4:45 | V | 48.69,-128.71, Off coast of Canada | V | 6.0 | V | 12.5 |
59 | 8/6/01 | 8/6~10/2 | 23.1~23.7N, 70~70.6E | >=6 | 9/20 13:34, 9/21 2:40 | V | 23.57, 70.28: 23.47, 70.08 | V | 4.7, 4.5 | x | aM4.5: 2.0 |
60 | 8/8/01 | 8/8~10/2 | 31.5~33.8N, 115~117W | >=4.5 | 10/31 7:56 | x | 33.51, -116.51 | V | 5.2 | V | 1.86 |
61 | 5/4/02 | 5/4~6/4 | 30~44S, 67~77W | >=6 | 5/23 15:52 | V | -30.67, -71.13 | V | 6 | V | 9.4 |
62 | 5/27/02 | 5/27~7/22 | 40~46N, 139~146E | >=6 | 6/28 17:19 | V | 43.77, 130.72 | x | 7.3 | V | 20.1 |
Note: (1) Probability represents the possibility of a random guess being true under the limits of a prediction. To calculate the probability, first, select such earthquakes from a certain data base that their epicenters are within the predicted area and their sizes are within the predicted magnitude range; second, divide the period of the data base into intervals as same as the predicted time span, and count the sum of all intervals as A; third, choose such intervals that they do not contain any selected earthquake, and count their sum as B; then calculate the probability P = 1- B/A. An additional explanation for this method is that the calculated probabilities are often larger than what they really are because the method ignores a big risk to choose correct area windows, i.e., the area windows are always suposed to be right. On the other hand, it avoids an argument about how to select a corresponding database for a prediction. Corrected Probability represents a probability after correcting the main mistakes. (2) Both earthquake databases and our predictions are supposed to have an error 0.1 each, or 0.2 together for latitude, longitude and magnitude although in fact larger. |
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