EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Past Predictions

This table lists the earthquake predictions that Zhonghao Shou have submitted to the local USGS (Pasadena) since February 13, 1994

Under construction. When completed, there will be a link to each of the predictions with

  • photo or satellite image of the earthquake cloud
  • datails of the prediction
  • prediction signed by the USGS
  • discussion and analysis of the prediction

Please check back again soon.

 

Prediction

Earthquake Prediction

Actual Earthquake

Prob.
%

#

Date

Time

Location

Magnitude

Time

Location

Magnitude

1

2/13/94

2/18-3/5

at or around Pas

4.0-5.5

2/25 12:59

V

34.357, -118.48 (dist to Pas = 39.3km)

V

4.0 ML

V

8.8

2

3/5/94

3/10-3/24

SCa or Mexico

5.5-6.8

3/14 20:51

V

15.994, -92.428 (Mexico)

V

6.9 Mw

V

18.5

3

3/15/94

3/20-4/4

SCa; dist to Pas = 50-150km

4.0-5.5

3/20 21:20

V

34.231, -118.475 (dist to Pas = 32.2km)

x

5.2 mb

V

15.7

4

3/15/94

3/15-4/9

30~45N, 65~80E

6.0-6.8

5/1 12:00

x

36.9, 37.16

V

6.1Mw

V

23.5

5

3/30/94

3/31-4/16

SCa

5-7

4/6 19:01

V

34.192, -117.095

V

5.0 ML

V

9.2

6

4/23/94

4/27-5/14

SCa or N Mexico

4.5-5.5

5/12 0:22

V

25.068, -109.294

V

5.6 Mw

V

36.6

7

6/3/94

6/8-6/25

10-80o W of N of Pas; dist to Pas = 30-100km

4.0-5.0

6/15 5:59

V

34.311, -118.398 (50.6o W of N of Pas; dist to Pas = 30.3km)

V

4.1 ML

V

3.6

8

9/10/94

9/10-9/25

Mediterranean, Black Sea & Mid-East

>=6

10/25 0:54

x

36.359, 70.957 (Mid-East)

V

6.0 ML

V

46.9

9

9/16/94

9/16-10/11

Japan-Aleutian Is. Kamchatka-Aleutian Is.

>=6

10/4 13:22

V

43.77, 147.32 (Japan)

V

8.3 Mw

V

31.5

10

10/18/94

10/18-11/3

USA

>=6

10/27 17:45

V

43.52, -127.43 (USA)

V

6.3 Mw

V

7.2

11

3/7/95

3/8-3/23

SCa or Mexico

>=4

3/21 9:43

V

29.94, -113.95 (Mexico)

V

4.4 ML

V

38.3

12

6/30/95

6/30-7/20

SCa

>=6

6/30/95 11:58

V

24.69, -110.23 (Mexico)

x

6.2 Mw

V

5.6

12b

7/2/95

7/2-7/20

#12 quake had gone

<5

7/2-7/20

V

#12 quake had gone

V

<5

V

 

13

10/11/95

10/17-10/27

Ca

6-7

10/21/95 2:39

V

16.84, -93.47 (Mexico)

x

6.4 ME

V

5.5

13b

10/22/95

10/22-11/5

#13 quake had gone

<5

10/22-11/5

V

#13 quake had gone

V

<5

V

 

14

5/10/96

5/12-5/23

SCa

4-4.8

5/21 20:50

V

37.36, -121.72 (NCa)

x

4.7 MD

V

33.7

15

10/25/96

10/25-11/19

SCa

>=4.5

11/27/96 20:17

x

36.08, -117.65 (SCa)

V

5.2 ML

V

31.8

16

11/25/96

11/25-12/20

15-22N, 90-105W

>=6

12/31/96 12:41

x

15.83, -92.97 (Mexico)

V

6.3 Mw

V

28.4

17

12/4/96

12/4-12/29

SCa or N Mexico 32-35N

4-5.3

12/28/96 22:41

V

33.76 -116.89 (SCa)

V

4 ML

V

42.3

18

12/6/96

12/6-1/6

Mexico, lat.18-29N

6-7

1/11/97 20:28

x

18.22, -102.76 (Mexico)

V

7.0 ME

V

5.7

19

3/6/97

3/6-4/5

N China, lat.>35

>=6

4/5 23:46,
4/5 4:36

V

39.49, 76.87 (N China),
39.43, 76.97 (N China)

V

6.3 ML

V

8.6

20

4/24/97

4/27-5/14

SCa, long.>118W, lat.<36N

>=4

4/27 11:09

V

34.33, 118.71W (SCa)

V

4.9 ML

V

13.7

21

4/27/97

4/29-5/20

SCa, long.<119W

3.7-5.3

5/6 19:12

V

35.44N, 118.43W (SCa)

V

4.5 ML

V

66.2

22

5/8/97

5/8-5/25

SCa, long.<118.5W

4-5.3

5/24 4:12

V

35.8N, 117.64W (SCa)

V

4 ML

V

34.4

23

5/28/97

5/28-7/11

Turkey or East Mediterranean Sea 25-35E

5.5 or 5 mb

6/1 12:54

V

36.16N, 31.3E, Turkey

V

5.6 ML

V

10.6 

 

24

7/18/97

7/19-8/9

SCa, 34-35N, 118.4-119W or 33-35N, 115.8-117.8W

>=4

7/25 19:14

V

33.4N, 116.35W (SCa)

V

4.9 ML

V

27.2

25

8/4/97

8/5-8/25

SCa, lat.>34.1 118-119W

4.7~5.3

8/21 16:11, 16:36

V

38.57N, 118.48W (NCa)

x

4.8 ML

V

4.5

25b

8/22/97

8/5-8/25

#25 quake had gone

4.7~5.3

8/21

V

#25 quake had gone

V

4.8 ML

V

 

 

Note:

(1) Probability represents the possibility of a random guess being true under the limits of a prediction. To calculate the probability, first, select such earthquakes from a certain data base that their epicenters are within the predicted area and their sizes are within the predicted magnitude range; second, divide the period of the data base into intervals as same as the predicted time span, and count the sum of all intervals as A; third, choose such intervals that they do not contain any selected earthquake, and count their sum as B; then calculate the probability P = 1- B/A.

An additional explanation for this method is that the calculated probabilities are often larger than what they really are because the method ignores a big risk to choose correct area windows, i.e., the area windows are always suposed to be right. On the other hand, it avoids an argument about how to select a corresponding database for a prediction.

Corrected Probability represents a probability after correcting the main mistakes.

(2) Both earthquake databases and our predictions are supposed to have an error 0.1 each, or 0.2 together for latitude, longitude and magnitude although in fact larger.

 

Home | Introduction | Publication & News | Predictions | New Predictions | Essays | Links | Contact


Sign Our Guestbook GuestbookView Our Guestbook

Updated: March 3, 2002 | Webmaster