EARTHQUAKE
CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
This table lists the earthquake predictions that Zhonghao Shou have submitted to the local USGS (Pasadena) since February 13, 1994 Under construction. When completed, there
will be a link to each of the predictions with
Please check back again soon. 
Prediction 
Earthquake Prediction 
Actual Earthquake 
Prob. 

# 
Date 
Time 
Location 
Magnitude 
Time 
Location 
Magnitude 

1 
2/13/94 
2/183/5 
at or around Pas 
4.05.5 
2/25 12:59 
V 
34.357, 118.48 (dist to Pas = 39.3km) 
V 
4.0 ML 
V 
8.8 
2 
3/103/24 
SCa or Mexico 
5.56.8 
3/14 20:51 
V 
15.994, 92.428 (Mexico) 
V 
6.9 Mw 
V 
18.5 

3 
3/15/94 
3/204/4 
SCa; dist to Pas = 50150km 
4.05.5 
3/20 21:20 
V 
34.231, 118.475 (dist to Pas = 32.2km) 
x 
5.2 mb 
V 
15.7 
4 
3/15/94 
3/154/9 
30~45N, 65~80E 
6.06.8 
5/1 12:00 
x 
36.9, 37.16 
V 
6.1Mw 
V 
23.5 
5 
3/30/94 
3/314/16 
SCa 
57 
4/6 19:01 
V 
34.192, 117.095 
V 
5.0 ML 
V 
9.2 
6 
4/23/94 
4/275/14 
SCa or N Mexico 
4.55.5 
5/12 0:22 
V 
25.068, 109.294 
V 
5.6 Mw 
V 
36.6 
7 
6/86/25 
1080^{o} W of N of Pas; dist to Pas = 30100km 
4.05.0 
6/15 5:59 
V 
34.311, 118.398 (50.6^{o} W of N of Pas; dist to Pas = 30.3km) 
V 
4.1 ML 
V 
3.6 

8 
9/10/94 
9/109/25 
Mediterranean, Black Sea & MidEast 
>=6 
10/25 0:54 
x 
36.359, 70.957 (MidEast) 
V 
6.0 ML 
V 
46.9 
9 
9/16/94 
9/1610/11 
JapanAleutian Is. KamchatkaAleutian Is. 
>=6 
10/4 13:22 
V 
43.77, 147.32 (Japan) 
V 
8.3 Mw 
V 
31.5 
10 
10/18/94 
10/1811/3 
USA 
>=6 
10/27 17:45 
V 
43.52, 127.43 (USA) 
V 
6.3 Mw 
V 
7.2 
11 
3/7/95 
3/83/23 
SCa or Mexico 
>=4 
3/21 9:43 
V 
29.94, 113.95 (Mexico) 
V 
4.4 ML 
V 
38.3 
12 
6/30/95 
6/307/20 
SCa 
>=6 
6/30/95 11:58 
V 
24.69, 110.23 (Mexico) 
x 
6.2 Mw 
V 
5.6 
12b 
7/2/95 
7/27/20 
#12 quake had gone 
<5 
7/27/20 
V 
#12 quake had gone 
V 
<5 
V 

13 
10/11/95 
10/1710/27 
Ca 
67 
10/21/95 2:39 
V 
16.84, 93.47 (Mexico) 
x 
6.4 ME 
V 
5.5 
13b 
10/22/95 
10/2211/5 
#13 quake had gone 
<5 
10/2211/5 
V 
#13 quake had gone 
V 
<5 
V 

14 
5/10/96 
5/125/23 
SCa 
44.8 
5/21 20:50 
V 
37.36, 121.72 (NCa) 
x 
4.7 MD 
V 
33.7 
15 
10/25/96 
10/2511/19 
SCa 
>=4.5 
11/27/96 20:17 
x 
36.08, 117.65 (SCa) 
V 
5.2 ML 
V 
31.8 
16 
11/25/96 
11/2512/20 
1522N, 90105W 
>=6 
12/31/96 12:41 
x 
15.83, 92.97 (Mexico) 
V 
6.3 Mw 
V 
28.4 
17 
12/4/96 
12/412/29 
SCa or N Mexico 3235N 
45.3 
12/28/96 22:41 
V 
33.76 116.89 (SCa) 
V 
4 ML 
V 
42.3 
18 
12/6/96 
12/61/6 
Mexico, lat.1829N 
67 
1/11/97 20:28 
x 
18.22, 102.76 (Mexico) 
V 
7.0 ME 
V 
5.7 
19 
3/6/97 
3/64/5 
N China, lat.>35 
>=6 
4/5 23:46, 
V 
39.49, 76.87 (N China), 
V 
6.3 ML 
V 
8.6 
20 
4/24/97 
4/275/14 
SCa, long.>118W, lat.<36N 
>=4 
4/27 11:09 
V 
34.33, 118.71W (SCa) 
V 
4.9 ML 
V 
13.7 
21 
4/27/97 
4/295/20 
SCa, long.<119W 
3.75.3 
5/6 19:12 
V 
35.44N, 118.43W (SCa) 
V 
4.5 ML 
V 
66.2 
22 
5/8/97 
5/85/25 
SCa, long.<118.5W 
45.3 
5/24 4:12 
V 
35.8N, 117.64W (SCa) 
V 
4 ML 
V 
34.4 
23 
5/28/97 
5/287/11 
Turkey or East Mediterranean Sea 2535E 
5.5 or 5 mb 
6/1 12:54 
V 
36.16N, 31.3E, Turkey 
V 
5.6 ML 
V 
10.6 
24 
7/18/97 
7/198/9 
SCa, 3435N, 118.4119W or 3335N, 115.8117.8W 
>=4 
7/25 19:14 
V 
33.4N, 116.35W (SCa) 
V 
4.9 ML 
V 
27.2 
25 
8/4/97 
8/58/25 
SCa, lat.>34.1 118119W 
4.7~5.3 
8/21 16:11, 16:36 
V 
38.57N, 118.48W (NCa) 
x 
4.8 ML 
V 
4.5 
25b 
8/22/97 
8/58/25 
#25 quake had gone 
4.7~5.3 
8/21 
V 
#25 quake had gone 
V 
4.8 ML 
V 

Note: (1) Probability represents the possibility of a random guess being true under the limits of a prediction. To calculate the probability, first, select such earthquakes from a certain data base that their epicenters are within the predicted area and their sizes are within the predicted magnitude range; second, divide the period of the data base into intervals as same as the predicted time span, and count the sum of all intervals as A; third, choose such intervals that they do not contain any selected earthquake, and count their sum as B; then calculate the probability P = 1 B/A. An additional explanation for this method is that the calculated probabilities are often larger than what they really are because the method ignores a big risk to choose correct area windows, i.e., the area windows are always suposed to be right. On the other hand, it avoids an argument about how to select a corresponding database for a prediction. Corrected Probability represents a probability after correcting the main mistakes. (2) Both earthquake databases and our predictions are supposed to have an error 0.1 each, or 0.2 together for latitude, longitude and magnitude although in fact larger. 
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