EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 4.4 Lake Isabella, Southern California Earthquake Prediction on June 9, 1999

Zhonghao Shou July 17, 1999



First of all, I should thank Ohio State University for offering satellite cloud images, and SCEC and Caltech for offering A degree data of the 4.4 Lake Isabella, Southern California earthquake on July 11, 1999.

My prediction No. 38 to both the USGS and the public on June 9, 1999 is correct. The following is a comparison:

Time Latitude (N) Longitude (W) Magnitude (ML)
Prediction 6/9~7/25 35~39 118~119 4.4~4.9
Earthquake 7/11 18:20 35.73 118.48 4.4

The 4.4 Lake Isabella earthquake is the only one >= 4 ML within both the area 30~ 42 N and 114~125 W (California, Nevada, and a part of Mexico), and the time between June 4 and July 11, 1999.

The prediction has a probability 15.0%.

In 1999, I predicted six earthquakes, including three to the public, to the USGS. Although, all six predictions are correct, it does not mean that there is no problem in my work. A main technical impediment is that I have neither extra detailed satellite cloud images to find tiny holes where earthquake vapors erupt, nor surface current distributions to deduce where earthquake clouds come from. Therefore, in many cases, I found the clouds, but I did not predict the corresponding earthquakes. For example, I found the 5.5Mb Washington earthquake (on July 3) cloud on June 3, and made a prediction for Washington and Vancouver on June 7, but did not report it to the USGS and the public, because there was a possibility that the cloud might come from Alaska. I am looking for web sites to obtain the distributions, and Mr. Harrington is helping me. If you know how to get the surface wind velocity distributions, please tell me how to do.

I should say hello to Suzie, and reply to Gianna Caridi de Ayala that I am looking for web sites for Central America, and other places.



6/9/1999 Pasadena

According to my analysis, I predict that there willbe an earthquake of magnitude 4~ 5.3 ML in the area35~39 N, 116~120 W within 46 days.

  • More likely time is 6/10~7/10.
  • The most likely time is 6/15~7/5.
  • More likely size is 4.4~ 4.9 ML.
  • The most likely size is 4.6~ 4.8 ML.
  • More likely latitude is 36~38.7 N.
  • The most likely latitude is 37~38.7 N.
  • More likely longitude is 117~119W.
  • The most likely longitude is 118~119W.

Zhonghao Shou

Actual Earthquake
1999 07 11 18:20:46.0& 35.730N 118.490W Depth: 6 4.5mb

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