EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
Common Question Reply Relating To
The 7.6 Taiwan and The 5.9 Greece Earthquakes
- September 26, 1999 -First of all, we thank more and more people from all over the world, including American government officers, for visiting our web page. Many readers wrote us e-mail messages to praise our work, ask questions, and request us to predict earthquakes where they are living. We have replied almost all of the messages. Today, we will answer some common questions. (1) Why we can not predict all big earthquakes in the world In our essay < Give Us A Good Weapon To Hit Earthquakes > on August 27, we already answered this question. Maybe we did not give concrete examples, so people repeated the same question. Today, we would like to list the five most important difficulties in making predictions based on satellite images: 1) Satellite sites offer no data sometimes Some people asked us whether we predicted the 7.6 Taiwan earthquake on September 20, 1999 or observed its cloud. We respond that we neither predicted it, nor observed its cloud. One possible reason is that University College of London (UCL) did not work from 9/11 20:32 ~ 9/15 23:32, neither did Dundee University, UK from 9/13 13:00~ 9/15 11:00. 2) Images are not frequent enough The 5.1 Sichuan, China earthquake cloud on July 26 was the only image, making it difficult to track the geographic origin of the cloud. Moreover, the 6.7 Northridge earthquake cloud only lasted for 35 minutes. It is essential that images be one every 30 minutes at least. 3) Satellite images are not sensitive enough Many earthquake clouds can be seen from the ground, but not from satellite images. For example, we photographed a series of earthquake clouds on April 12, 1999 for the 5.1 Vucca Valley, Southern California earthquake on August 17, and made a correct prediction No. 35, but we could not find them on satellite images. 4) Satellite sites offer conflicting data Ohio Univ. showed a line-shaped cloud over California at 3:00 on Sep. 16, 1999; while Utah Univ. showed nothing over the same location at the same time. (Look the both images in "Appendix" 5) Satellite images do not show the trace of earthquake clouds An earthquake cloud can move 7,000 km from the epicenter , so it is necessary to expose the trace to the vapor source. Unfortunately, meteorological satellite images do not show the trace usually . Therefore, we had found the 7.4 Turkey earthquake cloud near Sri Lanka on July 16, 1999, but we could not predict the epicenter. Someone asked us if we predicted the 5.9 Greece earthquake on September 7, 1999 or found its cloud. Our reply is that we got the cloud on August 14, but we could not predict the epicenter due to the same reason. (2) What we are going to do Zhonghao Shou thinks that the most important thing is to continue writing his book so more people will be able to use his methods and predict earthquakes themselves. The book called Earthquake Clouds and Short Term Prediction will explain not only his theory and practice, but also other precursors and questions, such as why the Parkfield prediction failed, whether the moon affects earthquakes, whether places with no earthquakes will still be earthquake-free, and so on. Many people have requested Shou to show his method. Recently, he has finished an article on just this subject. After its publication, he would like to reprint it on this web page A lot of people have requested Shou to show his earthquake cloud photographs and explain the whole process from data to the predictions in detail, so they will be able to predict earthquakes themselves. That is great. Shou would like to do it. However, the most important work is to donate us to overcome above impediments, otherwise you can not narrow the area window and tragedies will happen continuously.
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