Earthquakes are thought to defy predictions. Indeed,
numerous prediction methods have been attempted by generations
of geologists. These methods are based on correlations of
phenomena (such as animal behavior, tidal behavior, radon
generation, ground shift, electromagnetism, foreshocks) with
earthquakes. However, none of these methods have yielded
useful predictions, because they are based on correlations
instead of mechanisms. That is, an impending earthquake
may or may not lead to these putative precursors, and phenomena
other than earthquakes may also cause these phenomena.
In this book I propose a new theory – earthquake vapor
theory – that can be used to generate precise and accurate
earthquake predictions. This theory proposes that when a
huge rock is stressed by external (including man-made)
forces, its weak parts break first. This induces crevices into
which ground water percolates. Water expansion,
contraction, friction and erosion further weaken the rock.
Friction during ground movement heats the ground water and
eventually generates vapor at high temperature and pressure.
This vapor erupts from an impending hypocenter to the surface by
the crevices and a nozzle, and rises up to form an “earthquake
cloud” when encountering cold temperature at a higher
altitude or a geoeruption (geothermal eruption) as its heat
dissipates a preexisting cloud.
Earthquake clouds and geoeruptions can be differentiated from
other geological or weather phenomena because they are
vapor-based, suddenly appear, and have a fixed source, high
temperature and high pressure. The location of eruption
predicts the epicenter, the vapor amount predicts the magnitude,
and the time after a complete eruption empirically predicts the
time of the earthquake within days.
Using this theory, I predicted 63 independent earthquakes to the
United States Geological Survey from 1994 to 2001. Each
prediction has three definite windows of time, area and
magnitude. More than 60% of these predictions are all correct.
An evaluation on this set shows that random guesses will have
only a chance of 0.001 to achieve the same level of success. I
also made over 1500 predictions to the public from 1999 to 2007.
The Bam cloud is representative. It appeared suddenly from
and insisted at a nozzle in Bam, Iran for 26 hours on December
20~21, 2003 when surface temperature increased 5oC
downwind. The Bam prediction on December 25 is excellent. An
M6.8 earthquake hit Bam exactly on December 26 and was the only
one in the predicted area and magnitude in the record of about
3000 years. The United Nations published my paper “Bam
Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology” in its 2004
yearbook (Seminars of the United Nations Programme on
Space Applications 16), and shared this book to
its all member states in Vienna in early 2005. The
United States Patent and Trademark Department published
“Method of precise earthquake prediction and prevention of
mysterious air and sea accidents” (Patent US
08068985B) in 2011.
Despite the promise of the Earthquake Vapor Theory, I have
received no fund to overcome technical difficulties
associated with satellite data, temperature data, and earthquake
data. I hope that this book will help the mankind to
solve these solvable problems and be able to predict all
I acknowledge LinYing Fang, WenYing Shou, Abdolreza Ansari
Amoli, Andy M Han, ChengNan Xu,
Sri Ram, JianJun Xia,
XiaoKun Chen, Yan Fang, ShuiZhen
Ye, JuanJuan Shao, the Lee & Hayes
Office, and the Han Office for support or help. I thank
international sources, media, scholars, and people for data,
information, reports, inspiration, and donation.