EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Trip in China (renew)

- July 29, 2006 -

First of all, I would like to thank many readers for concerning my wife and me in China. I have returned to New York since June 29, and would like to share what I did to everybody.

On Nov. 3, 2005, I went to my hometown Hangzhou where I had left for 12.5 years without once back. Really, China developed a lot. High buildings and highways were mushrooming everywhere. On the other hand, something did not, and even became worse. However, I only talk about my trip.

Watching on the rebuilt building, I felt cold and tremble suddenly. I seemed to see both my wife and young daughter, a student of UCLA now, suffering from large leaking water when big typhoons came in our former apartment, reduced from a 4-floor-building to a single apartment to force us to move far away for ever or remove into a much smaller new apartment. Ringing up my dear wife, my heart was immediately beating. When she appeared in front of me, I wondered about my eyes for her full white hair and pale face. She looked completely different with herself while seeing me off in Shanghai Airport in May, 1993. Tears filled my eyes, but I reminded myself to control my emotion again and again for the hard, precious reunion. Suddenly, I asked myself whether or not both my selfless devotion and exciting discovery on earthquake prediction could wake up governments to save people, and whether or not all what I had done was valuable.

I wasted much time for a TV company. In Sept. 2004, National Geographic organized a film competition in Singapore. One week before it, a TV company wrote me for a 4-minute-tape of my work in hurry. I did it with help of my friend who had come from California especially. By our tape, the company won a fund for a one-hour film called "Chase Earthquake". I was very happy and prepared a 73-page PowerPoint for it to wake up governments. However, the company had their own plan to shoot various predictors in American, India and China. They were too busy to shoot my work in New York, but in China, instead. I was waiting and waiting, but finally I was informed to have about one hour to meet them and about 3.75 minutes in the film, which made me too hard to accept for those methods had neither made a reliable prediction, nor entered the competition, but had taken too much time. Since the company had gotten the fund by my tape, I requested them to repay us net $400 for the airplane tickets at least, and our Chinese Bank $5 for fee. They paid us $395 and the Chinese Bank $5, togather $400.

On the other hand, I translated the English PowerPoint into Chinese for my friends. They all highly admired my work. Mr. Cheng-Nan Xu, national honorable physics teacher, and former Chinese Congressman, was surprised by its simple and clear evidence and highly admired my method as a discovery. He wondered about how so many seismologists had not found it. My friends spread it one by one. Then, <Gian Evening News > reported my work on Feb. 19, 2006 [1-1] [1-2] , and <Cultural Dialogue > in No. 3, 2006[2-1] [2-2] [2-3] [2-4].

After reading the report of Gian Evening News, Chinese Chess Master Xico-Kun Chen, chief coach of the Chinese Chess Team in Zhejing province, visited me with gifts. One of them was a roll of "Chinese Scientific and Technological Hero", written by Mr. Sheng, famous Chinese handwriting expert. Mr. Chen has appealed to support my work enthusiastically. As a reward, I presented him a pair of rolls with "Attack or defense, truth or falseness, convergence or divergence, your insight always induces victory; appealing officers and people, friends and relatives, the rich and the poor to support my work, your enthusiasm surpasses the endless universe", written by Mr. Liang Wu , young Chinese handwriting champion.

Another man impressing me is Mr. I-wen Chen, adviser of the Disaster Prediction Committee of the Chinese Geophysics Society, and great scientific and technical socialite. He especially visited and invited me to Beijing. As a result, I introduced my work with the PowerPoint to experts of the Disaster Prediction Committee, the Analysis and Predicting Center of the Chinese Seismological Bureau, and the Geological Institute of the Chinese Seismological Bureau each. They seriously listened to me without doubt and blame. Many scientists of the Institute made a copy. They admired my work as a discovery, too.

On the other hand, experts of the Predicting Center told me that China had been forbidding predicting earthquakes, which implied a serious problem from the government. There was an interesting story by Mr. Lu in the Predicting Center. He was in hurry to run away just after claiming, "You method works only by you." Right away, I said, "You are very interesting. You are afraid of my response, so you are in hurry to go away." He returned to sit down. "You are right if no government solves both the satellite data problems and the earthquake data problems. However, if one day those problems are solved, a little student of an elementary school will be able to predict earthquakes much better than what I am doing now." As a result, he lost words. Afterwards, I received many messages to admire my response.

I was not all okay in China. I stayed in a hospital for an operation in two and more weeks unfortunately. Moreover, my eyes reduced their ability from1.0 to 0.3. I was thinking about what I should do at first. Limited by both satellite data problems and earthquake data problems, I could not do better than the set of my 50 independent predictions, verified by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) from 1994 to 2001, published by No.16 SEMINARS of the UN [3]. This set has an accuracy of 68% with American "Peer on" i.e. errors between prediction and earthquake are less than 1 minute, 1km and 0.1M for time, area, and magnitude respectively, and with a chance of 1 in 16,000. to be successful. Limited also by age and health, I could not work 12 hours a day without weekend and holiday continuously as what I did before to maintain our web site, in which I predicted over 1,400 earthquakes with am accuracy of 70% to the public. Due to the above two reasons, I have decided to concentrate my energy on writing a book for new generations although I will predict earthquakes sometimes.

I hope people to understand my decision, which was partly because of a social problem . For example, an internet problem, having delayed the Bam cloud to me for three days, could make me no time to warn the Bam people with my developed prediction. On the other hand, budgets of multimillion dollars were wasted for the Los Angeles prediction of the JPL (Jet Propulsion Lab.) in Aug. 1999, which had been disproved by me correctly[4,,5]. Therefore, it is better for people to convince governments to solve satellite data problems and earthquake data problems than to ask me questions..



References

  1. Menghe Shen. Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds (p1) (p2) Qian Jiang Evening News Discovery A13 February 19, 2006 in Chinese
  2. Menghe Shen. Earthquake Forecaster Who Can Read Clouds (p17) (p18) (p19) (p20) Cultural Dialogue 69 Life 17~20 (2006) in Chinese & English
  3. Darrell Harrington & Zhonghao Shou Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications16, 39-63 (2005).
  4. California Earthquake Situation Analysis
  5. The 7.0 Hector Mine, Southern California Earthquake Shows That I Am Right (Rewrite)


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