EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
My 6.1 NW China Earthquake Prediction Is Exact
in Area & Magnitude, but One Day Delay (Renew)
- February 19, 2005 -
On Nov. 9, 2004, I predicted an earthquake of magnitude more than or equal to 6, and circled its area by this image 1 within 96 days or 103 days since Nov. 2 when the cloud had emerged to the Public. The area was smaller than 114,600 km2 or 40~43.5N, and 78~81.5E (=3.5x110x3.5x85). Note: "N" was wrong typed as "S", but cross marks show the image from north-hemispere. Here is the ORIGINAL IMAGE for ererybody to check. On Feb. 14, 2005, an M6.1 earthquake occurred at 41.71N 79.33E, XinJiang, China exactly in the windows of magnitude and area 2. There were 3 earthquakes in the predicted magnitude and area since Jan. 1, 1990 or the beginning of the database of the USGS. By them, the time probability can be calculated as 3.59% according to my published method 3. The following table reveals the 3 quakes |
| Date | Time | 40~43.5N | 78~81.5E | Depth (km) | Magnitude>=6 | |
| 19900101 | ||||||
| 19901112 | 12:28 | 42.95 | 78.07 | 19.1 | 6.4 | |
| 19910225 | 14:30 | 40.38 | 78.95 | 20.6 | 6.1 | |
| 20050214 | 23:28 | 41.71 | 79.33 | 22 | 6.1 | |
| 20050215 |
| During the period of 104 days from Nov. 2, 2004 when the cloud emerged to Feb. 14, 2005 when the quake happened, this M6.1 quake was the only one of magnitude more than or equal to 6 in the area of 30~90N, 90S~90N or 1/6 of the surface of the Earth. The surface of the Earth is some bigger than 509, 000,000 km2 (=4x3.1416x63652). Thus, the area probability or a random area guess as the same as this predicted area is 0.135% (=114600x6/509000000) or a chance of 1 in 740 to be successful. Since this 1/6 of the Earth is a seismic active region, including Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Xinjiang of China, the Indian Ocean, and so on., it is rare for this M6.1 quake to be the only one of magnitude more than or equal to 6 within the 104 days. Although the prediction is exact in both area and magnitude, I deal with it as a miss because of one-day delay. On the other hand, it is difficult to simulate such a miss due to its small probabilities. Moreover, no one knows how long the longest delay from a cloud to its sequence is exactly. In addition, I had mentioned "The longest delay may be over 103 days" before 4. In short, this miss belongs to an experience problem as a pioneer. To solve it, I will extend the time window from 103 days to 104 days. However, it is still possible that the longest delay may surpass 104 days. New According to China Daily, this earthquake destroyed 5,800 rooms of 900 households in Wushi County. |
| References |
|
Sign Our Guestbook
View Our GuestbookUpdated: February 19, 2005 | Webmaster