EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
2005 New Year Greeting
- January 1, 2005 -
First of all, I would like to greet our friends and readers with "Happy New Year!" and thank you for your interest in our work. I would like to review what I did in 2004. Although unable to obtain the data I need, I predicted 368 earthquakes, in which 299 already happened, and 69 will be checked in 2005. In the 299 predictions, 203, marked with one or two red stars, or 67.9% were correct in coarse windows, which is close to 68%, stated in our presentation Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology [1], and 95, marked with two red stars, or 31.8% were correct in fine windows. In all of the predictions, the following 10 are for earthquakes of magnitude more then or equal to 6, epicenters pinpointed out, and within 103 days, mentioned on the top of Predictions by Photos and Images exactly: Prediction: No.1A Central America EQ Cloud >=5.5, posted on 1/15, Earthquake: No.1 2/4 11:59 8.44N 82.97W 28km 6.1M Panama-Costa Rica, all exact Prediction: No.2 A Vanuatu EQ Cloud >=5.5, posted on 2/ 2 Earthquake: No.2 2/20 5:58 11.7S 166.46E 84km 6M Santa Cruz IS., all exact Prediction: No.3 An Indonesia EQ Cloud >=5, posted on 2/12 Earthquake: No.3 2/22 6:46 1.59S 100.4E 43km 6M Indonesia, all exact Prediction: No.4 A SW Pacific EQ Cloud >=6, posted on 3/11 Earthquake: No.4 4/14 1:33 17.85S 174.53W 143km 6 Tonga, all exact Prediction: No.5 An Indonesia Geoeruption >=5, posted on 6/17 Earthquake: No.5 7/28 3:56 0.48S 133.04E 13.6km 6.6M Indonesia, all exact Prediction: No.6 A Tonga or Neighbor Geoeruption, >=6, posted on 7/31 Earthquake: No.6 9/319:04 15.37S 173.23W 10km 6.2M Tonga, all exact Prediction: No.7 A Sandwich EQ Cloud, >=5.5, posted on 8/10 Earthquake: No.7 9/6 12:42 55.31S 28.87W 10km 6.9M Sandwich, all exact Prediction: No.8 A Solomon or Neighbor Geoeruption, >=5.5, posted on 9/28 Earthquake: No.8 10/8 8:27 10.99S 162.14E 37km 6.8M Solomon, all exact Prediction: No.9 A Canada Geoeruption, >=5, posted on 8/30 Earthquake: No.9 11/2 10:02 49.26N 128.87W 10km 6.7M Canada, all exact Prediction: No.10 A W Indonesia Geoeruption, >=5, posted at 2:23 12/15 Earthquake: No.10 12/26 0:58 3.3N 95.78E 10km 8.9M W Indonesia, all exact In 2004, 7 devastating earthquakes killed 117,296 people. I predicted 4 of them or 57% . They are the 2M5.5 Pakistan earthquakes on Feb. 14, the 6.3 Iran May 28, the 5.2 China Aug. 10, and the 9 Indonesia Dec. 26. Both the Pakistan, and the China earthquakes had been pointed out exactly [2]. Moreover, I successfully predicted the 5.3 Dominican Republic earthquake, widely discussed by DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum [3] and [4] . The success was reported with a title 5.3 earthquake in Santo Domingo [5] by Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service.A prediction for an earthquake of magnitude more than and equal to 5 in Fault ABC within 103 days in the interview, Chinese Earthquake Predictor Has Answered Your Questions [6] of BBC Persian was correct, too [7]. Besides the above, 38 precursors of large earthquakes, marked by "The", were found for experience after they happened. Furthermore, Iran Daily Newspaper reported my successful Bam Prediction, and admired my method as "the most accurate way for earthquake prediction presented so far" [8]. I was invited by both UN and the Iran Space Agency to present my method in the UN/Iran Workshop, Tehran, May, 2004. Unable to go without a green card for return, I entrusted Iranian scientist Amoli to present, and UN will publish it soon. Moreover, a similar version was translated and presented in the Meeting of the Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China on May 12, 2004. The both received good comments [9], [10]. Moreover, the GEsource Geography and Environment Gateway, UK has accepted our web site as its resources Earthquake Clouds and Short Term Prediction [11]. Web site Iran Civil Center in Tehran, and Zoni Voice in New York also reported my work [12]. In addition, I disproved a prediction, made by Keilis-Borok's (K-B) team in UCLA [13], and widely spread by the USGS to warn drivers in Southern California later [14]. In fact, I told the USGS that K-B's method was incorrect even though the National Academy of Sciences had published it in the early 2004 when the USGS invited me to meet K-B, but I lacked money to buy a prompt ticket. On the other hand, my work has not been widely recognized. As a result, I can not obtain the data I need. For example, I proposed satellite data problems in 2002 [15], however, there is still no data to distinguish a large earthquake from a group of moderate earthquakes. In 1999, I made a mistake to predicted 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5~5.7 as an M7 in the Indian Ocean (refer to No. 38 prediction in Table 5 and Fig. 8 in our paper [1]). While now, I predicted the M9 Indonesia earthquake as an M5 or over. Although it is correct, error is large because of no good data. As another result, I can not obtain reliable earthquake data, either. The USGS claims the Indonesia earthquake with a magnitude 9, while other countries reported it from 5.5 to 8.9 [16]. Still, does no one know how big the Indonesia earthquake is scientifically because no one has adjusted systemic error, yet [17]. Data loss and random error are also big problems for earthquake data [18]. Both satellite data problems and earthquake data problems extend both windows of area and magnitude seriously. As a result, 117,296 people were killed by earthquake in 2004. Anyway, an Indian TV producer asked me an interesting question about why my work had not been widely recognized. After thinking over, I found two main reasons. First, pessimists have a phobia of earthquake prediction. For example, Geller wrote, "Charles F. Richter, developer of the earthquake magnitude scale, commented in 1977,'Since my first attachment to seismology, I have had a horror of predictions and of predictors, Journalists, and the general public rush to any suggestion of earthquake prediction like hogs toward a full trough. [Prediction] provides a happy hunting ground for amateurs, cranks, and outright publicity -seeking fakers.' "[19]. They might think that my work would shock their honor in spite of nothing. Second, optimists are eager to "discovery". For instance, K-B proclaimed, "We have made a major breakthrough, discovering ...."[13] He ignored the 1st successful earthquake prediction in the World, recorded in the Chronicle of Lon-De County, China in 1623, and my work, predicted to the US Geological Survey, published in 1999, and reported by ABC TV, Yahoo Full Coverage, and KAOS TV in USA before 2004 at least[14], but repeated his nine-month "discovery" by "UC News Wire" on Jan. 6, 2004. He even pulled an earthquake, 300 km out of his studied area, into his studied area as a success. If he had admitted my work, could his 9-month "discovery" have been proclaimed? Pessimists and optimists seem different, but they are the same for honor. By contrast, I am not for honor. During a big argument between my wife, insisting in my return to China, and me in 1994, I replied her that I believed that my theory would rule the world finally 300 years later after my death, and I would write a book as my gift for new generations against devastating earthquakes. I wish the both pessimists and optimists to love people more than their honor. Unable to obtain the data I need, I will not spend 12 hours a day without a weekend and a holiday to maintain our web site bidaily, but concentrate on how to narrow time window, and others that may not depend on data accuracy much. However, I will still predict earthquakes to the public in our web site with a small probability sometimes. Finally, I would like to gratefully acknowledge Wenying Shou, Frank Mayhar, and Zoni Language Centers for support, UN Space Applications Section Office for Outer Space Affairs, Alice Lee, Sharafat Gadimova, UN/Islamic Republic of Iran Regional Workshop, Iran Space Agency, Hassan Shafti, Parviz Tarikhi, and Abdolreza Ansari Amoli for the invitation, the presentation, and the comment, the Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction of China, I-Wan Chen, and Xiud Xu for the presentation and the comments, Iran Daily Newspaper, Abdolreza Ansari Amoli, Iran Civil Center, Amir Moniri, Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service, DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum, Thomas J. Churchill, Sonja Medina Lopez, BBC Persian, the GEsource Geography and Environment Gateway, UK, the University of Manchester, UK, Zoni Voice, Ana Paula Hengist, Jean Fleaurimond, Tim Nevits, and Shrah Hutma for the reports, the donators for the donations, Dundee University, UK, NOAA, EUMETSAT, and University College London for satellite images, Orhan Cerit for the animation, the United States Geological Survey, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Southern and the Northern California Earthquake Data Centers, the University of Nevada, the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, Simin Li, EMSC/CSEM, PRSN, SMAS, and JWA for earthquake data, China Academy of Building Research and China Academic Publishers for the photograph of earthquake damage, Alan L. Jones and Richard H. Jones for the method of statistical evaluation, and many friends who do not want to show their names. I would like to greet them, our readers, and all people in the World with "Happy New Year!" |
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