EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My 9.0 W Indonesia Earthquake Prediction Is Successful (renew)

- December 28, 2004 -

On Dec. 15, 2004, I predicted an earthquake of magnitude more than or equal to 5 in the circled area including a part of both Indonesia and India by this image [1]. Moreover, the time window is within 103 days since Dec. 13 when the geoeruption appeared, mentioned on the top of Predictions by Photos and Images.

On Dec. 26, an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 happened at 3.3N, 95.78E Sumatra, Indonesia [2]. It killed 50,941 people, reported by the USGS [3]. An M7.3 earthquake followed at 6.9N, 92.95E, Nicobar, India a few hours later [4] .

The both had been predicted exactly [5] , but the tragedy happened. Why? The society had not widely recognized my work although many media reported it Publication & News. As a result, people had not known my work much. Moreover, due to the same reason I could not obtain the data I need to narrow the windows. For example, due to satellite data problems [6], I have no idea to distinguish an earthquake of magnitude 7 from a group of magnitude 5 as my failed prediction, No. 38 in Table 5 of our presentation "Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology" [7] in the UN/Iran Workshop, Tehran, May 2004. Moreover, due to earthquake data problems, magnitude error could be over 1.4 between different databases for the same earthquake [8]. Even if in the same database, magnitude error could reach 0.6 for the same earthquake sometimes [9]. Therefore, I am really confused by data error.

In spite of impossibility to obtain the data I need, my 9.0 Indonesia earthquake prediction is the best result in the World again. Therefore, I feel duty to appeal space experts to solve satellite data problems, and seismologists to solve earthquake data problems for people's safety. I hope them to will to do this important work for people in earthquake danger.



References

  1. Image 20041213 6:00 The 9.0 Indonesia Geoeruption
  2. Map 20041226 The 8.9 Indonesia Earthquake map by the USGS
  3. Death Report by the USGS
  4. Map 20041226 The 7.3 India Earthquake map by the USGS
  5. A comparison between the epicenters and the predicted area
  6. Essay: A020804 Satellite Data Problems
  7. Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology in the UN/Iran Workshop in Tehran, May 2004.
  8. Essay: A010515 Earthquake Database Problems
  9. Essay: A041125 Hope for Complete & Accurate Earthquake Data


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