EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Tehran Special

- July 3~August 10, 2004 -



Preview 20040709

This discussion is due to the request of Tehran people. Its purposes are to propose my rough view for reference of scientists and people worldwide who are interested in understanding earthquake phenomena and predicting earthquakes themselves, and to receive exciting examples from them. It is called "Propose brick to receive diamond" in China.

All examples are selected form about a million articles and books in both Chinese and English, or my observation. They are important for distinguishing earthquake phenomena from others. I hope you to enjoy them that will help you to explain phenomena, and predict earthquakes. If you have excellent examples, please let me know.

For people who are not interested in theory, my predictions are in Predictions by Photos and Images A prediction connecting to Tehran is in Page 19 on June 12 or in my reply for question No.1 of BBC Persian interview.

I will propose my view about temperature, and animal behave when I have time.



Strange Spring 20040703~31

First of all, I would like to thank Tehran people for their deep belief in my work, and to set up this "Tehran Special" to receive information from people and reveal new messages to others for a little compensation of no fund for me to pinpoint out an impending epicenter like the Bam [1], but not to rely on a very cold environment .

Two Tehran people wrote me that many springs with a lot of sulfur vapor suddenly appeared near faults in Semnan province.

On Jul. 2, Shadi Moradi told,"Yesterday I heard from radio that 10 strange spring has been appeared in the south of Semnan province and their discharge is about 30 Lit/sec, salty and bitter. Also the sulfur odor is smelt from these springs."(7/31)

Strange spring is a reliable precursor. I cited, "Water was erupting as high as 2.3 m two hours before the quake [5], and the pressure of the oil well Xing 5 sharply increased from 116.8 at. on October 8 to 137.0 at. on October 11, 1974 before the quake [8]" in my paper "The Haicheng Earthquake and Its Prediction" [2]. I also cited, "Zhang and Zhao reported that the oil-well pressure sharply increased 20~ 50 atm. about one month before the quake, and oil erupted three times from Well No. 4 (150 km away from Tangshan) between June 16 and July 28, 1976 [11]" in my paper "Chinese People Struggle Against Earthquake Disaster"[3]. As well as "The effect of this superheated steam has been seen at the surface on numerous occasions." "Water spouts erupted from as high as 115 feet above the valley floor at an estimated 400 cubic feet per second" during the 7.3 Borah Peak, Idaho earthquake on October 28, 1983 [14], and "Petroleum erupted about 20 meters high" from a well eleven days before the Tangshan earthquake [15]" in "Earthquake Clouds a reliable precursor"[4].

An American scientist explained this phenomenon due to land tilt, but how to explain both sudden and height. Did Borah Peak tilt 115 feet or 34.7 meter suddenly for the water eruption of the 7.3 Idaho earthquake? No, it did not. By contrast, my theory can easily refer this phenomenon to high pressure of earthquake vapor for an impending earthquake.

Strange Spring is an important sign, but it needs to accumulate data for magnitude and time, maybe from hours to years. (7/31)

This page will add more messages. Messages about strange heat, pressure, smell, sound, gape and so on are welcome. Please keep eyes to surrounding.



Lighting 20040705~07

Many Tehran people wrote me about lighting near Tehran, and requested me to discuss it in our website. I have not seen any earthquake lighting, but cited two reports. One of them was "Tang[1] reported that one minute before the quake, two drivers, Zhang and Liu, of the No. 129 express train of Beijing - Dalian suddenly saw 'three belts of glittering flashes appearing in the night sky', and thought this must be the precursor of an imminent earthquake, and stopped the train immediately, a mere 24 km from the epicenter. Due to the drivers' knowledge of the ancient earthquake lore, and their courage to make a short-term prediction, the lives of all the passengers were saved" before the Tangshan earthquake [3] .

The other of them was, "At 19:36 of February 4, 1975, one minute or more before the quake, the No. 31 express train of Dalian-Beijing was approaching the Tang-Wang-Shan station near Haicheng. 'Very bright purplish red flashes suddenly glittered in the dark sky before the train. The drivers immediately pulled down the emergency brake. Just as the train stopped, the strong quake came' [6]" before the Haicheng earthquake [2].

The above reports are possible. Before the Tangshan earthquake, the air was very hot and moist. Its convection could cause a friction-electric-field. For the Haicheng earthquake, outside temperature was cold, but underground was hot. I cited, "A part of the ice in a shade of a frozen reservoir melted during a very cold winter [5], and many snakes suicided on the frozen ground [6, 7]", "Water was erupting as high as 2.3 m two hours before the quake [5], and the pressure of the oil well Xing 5 sharply increased from 116.8 at. on October 8 to 137.0 at. on October 11, 1974 before the quake[8]", and "Sulphureous gas emitted before the Haicheng earthquake [7]" in my paper "The Haicheng Earthquake and Its Prediction" [2]. Therefore, an induced electric field was possible. Moreover, Haicheng Earthquake happened on Feb. 4, 1975 in Northeast China, where and when should not have had lightning in general. The two examples suggest that earthquake lightning is possible, and an earthquake follows its lightning immediately. Therefore, you can judge what the lightning you saw is. If still not, my answer is weather lightning.

Some Tehran people wonder about whether or not lightning without rain indicates an earthquake. I would like to repeat a fact that in my hometown, there is no earthquake in its history, so it must belong to weather there. I would also like to show a folk method my mother taught me, "Light in east indicates wind, west nothing, south sunlight like fire, and north upcoming rain ". I checked it many times, and it was all right. Therefore, lightning without rain is as common as it with rain.

Besides the above, I would like to show a satellite image for heat near Tehran [5]



Temperature 20040713

Many Tehran people wrote me about abnormal temperature there, and asked me to discuss it. Really, temperature is an important character of my theory. When it reaches a threshold underground, water boils into superheated vapor with high pressure, and the vapor erupts by crevices to the atmosphere. As a result, either an earthquake cloud, or a geoeruption forms. The vapor source underground is called "Hypocenter", while the surface over the vapor source is called "Epicenter". The distance between the both is called "Depth" that distributes from 0 to 728 km or so according to the data of the USGS from 1990 to 2003.

I cited "Temperatures from 300 -1500oC can be generated along fault lines[5-8]" [4]. Therefore, abnormal temperature can appear around an impending epicenter, about which I cited many undebatable examples in my papers [2], [3], [4]. However, I would like to offer my own examples.

On Aug. 10, 1999, I wrote, "On the evening of August 3, TV Channel 7 reported temperature of 109 degree at Palm Spring as the highest in Southern California, and the weather reporter said that he could not understand why that place was so hot. ...". I also revealed a satellite image [6] to show the black triangle, containing Palm Springs, Landers, Imperial Valley, Volcano Lake (Mexico), and so on, and the border between California and Nevada where temperatures were hot and consistent with the TV report. Then, I predicted that the next big earthquake would not attack the city of Los Angeles where the USGS predicted, but "either the black triangle, or the California-Nevada border" [7]. On Oct.16, 1999, the 7.0 Hector Mine Earthquake at 34.60N 116.27W, near Landers in the black triangle proclaimed my success [8].

Another example was "the temperature of New York suddenly rose up to 85oF (29oC) on April 17 and 95oF (35oC) on April 18, 2002, and kept hot all day long from morning to night like summer" [9] . On April 20, 2002, the 5.1 New York earthquake followed [10] where I had revealed a geoeruption, and predicted an earthquake closely in Mar. 2002 [11].

On the other hand, not all large earthquakes follow hot temperature, e.g. "It is true that the temperature was low before the Northridge earthquake. I touched the ground of Pasadena (34.133N, 118.125W), 38.9km away to Northridge (34.213N, 118.537W), ten times a day after January 8, and found the land was cool" [9].

I refer why not all earthquakes follow high temperature to four reasons. First, soil is not good at conduction of heat. Thus, the deeper (0~728 km) a hypocenter, the slower the conduction of heat. Second, wind and cold weather can bring heat away faster than that from an earthquake sometimes. As a result, hot underground pushes snakes out off holes, while cold surface freeze out them [2]. Third, heat rises up mainly by crevices, so the more crevices a hypocenter has, the more heat an epicenter receives. Fourth, a hypocenter has different temperature from 300 to1500oC. Therefore, The hotter a hypocenter, the warmer an epicenter. There may be more factors, but the above are important for whether or not a high temperature appears before an earthquake.

I would like to mention that a sudden increase of temperature can predict a remote earthquake. For example, I called my wife in Hangzhou (30.25N, 120.17E) on July 24, 2003. She was with her friends home. She told me very hot and humid there due to a sudden increase of temperature. "Yes, I know." "How do you know?" "By satellite images. The heat is from Japan, so Japan will have a large earthquake soon." "Really?" "Yes." She told her friends the prediction right away. A week later, I called her again, and she and her friends were all surprised because Chinese TV had reported a large earthquake in Japan the next day. Here are the satellite data [12].. The star in Image 20030723 03:00 indicates my hometown, while the arrow indicates heat from Japan The earthquake data are "20030725 22:13 38.41N 140.99E 6km 6M Japan". The distance between my hometown and the epicenter is 2100 km.

In short, using temperature to predict earthquake needs to analyze each actor above. A half-hourly temperature map is helpful to find where heat comes from. Otherwise, mistake may happen. I proposed those examples, so you can compare them with your own to judge whether or not there was an abnormal temperature in Tehran.



Abnormal Temperature 20040719

Some Tehran people asked me to show a standard of "abnormal temperature". It is a good question. In history, pessimists and optimists have debated this term of "abnormal" for over a centenary, but no result. In 1997, Geller et al. proposed "Earthquakes cannot be predicted" [13], one of their points was about the definition of "abnormal". Although disagreeing with their conclusion, I agree with their points. Thus, I just try to show my opinion. If it is not perfect, please give me your suggestion.

I would like to reveal more examples at first. Before the 7.3 Haicheng, Liaoning earthquake on February 4, 1975, "a part of the ice in a shade of a frozen reservoir melted during a very cold winter [5]"[2].

After the 7.4 Turkey earthquake on Aug. 17, 1999, Turkish scientist Orhan Cerit, Head of Informatics Department of Cumhuriyet University, wrote me that the temperature in Istanbul had jumped up to a history record since June.

There are many other examples, but it is OK to show my opinion of "abnormal temperature". Compare with history records and neighborhoods, a sudden increase of local temperature that meteorology can not explain is "abnormal temperature". Therefore, the Haicheng example belongs to "abnormal", too, although it was frozen outside.

Some people asked me about how to make a temperature map. I know to do it by radar, and not expensive, but I am unfamiliar to its detail. If you really want to do it, you can search the detail from the Internet, which will help Tehran people independently on satellite data and "Authorities".



Animal Behave 20040721

Some Tehran people asked me about abnormal animal behave. It is difficult to distinguish "abnormal behave" from "normal behave". Maybe due to this reason, no reliable prediction was reported by this method. However, I would like to show some my opinion.

First, it should be abnormal that hibernating snakes crawled out from their holes to the frozen ground, and then died before the 7.3 Haicheng earthquake. A model to explain it is too hot inside to hibernate, and too cold outside.

Second, the USGS report that a couple of M6 earthquakes in Jiashi county, Xinjiang province, China injured 14 people, and killed 100 head of livestock on Apr. 5 and 6, 1997. Moreover, my neighbor had a big dog that was silent in Pasadena (34.138 N, 118.143 W) before the Northridge earthquake (34.215N, 118.538W) at 4:31 a.m. (LT) Jan. 17, 1994. The both examples demonstrate that those animals can not predict earthquakes. Moreover, there is no model to explain why they can predict earthquakes.

In short, it is a difficult question. On one hand, there is some reliable examples for abnormal behave. If we can investigate many events of suicided snakes into narrowing windows of time, epicenter and magnitude, it will be useful. On the other hand, many reports are not scientific. To study those behave may waste time.



Other Precursors 20040725

Many Tehran scientists and people asked me about the thermal infrared method, by which an Iranian doctor of Sharif Univ. predicted a big earthquake including Tehran with an accuracy of 100% and claimed that he had predicted the Bam earthquake. However, Iranian TV and Radio announced that no one could predict earthquakes against him. However, I replied Mr. Amoli that to claim an accuracy of 100% was not scientific. A few weeks later, the prediction was withdrawn.

Although his prediction is wrong, I think that the thermal infrared method should be a precursor, but it has two problems at least. First, it has error. For example, its epicenter for Bam is at about 28N, 56E or has an error of over 200 km to Bam (28.99N, 58.29E). Second, it does not work for all large earthquakes.

On the other hand, it is incorrect to announce that no one could predict earthquakes because I predicted the Bam earthquake exactly, and the set of my 50 predictions, reported to the USGS, has a total probability of 0.000062 to be successful [14] in spite of no fund for good data. Therefore, the announcement of Iranian TV and Radio is wrong.

Some Tehran people also asked me about other precursors, such as Moon phase, foreshock, etc. I studied those and many others including the Plate Theory before, and found two common problems. First, they can not explain earthquake phenomena e.g. those cited or proposed in our paper "Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology"[14]. Second, they have high probabilities. For instance, someone predicted earthquakes of magnitude 3 or over somewhere in Western USA by foreshock with a proclaimed probability of "85%", which is too big to make a sense. By contrast, my Bam prediction has a probability of 2% and close to 0 for the coarse and fine prediction respectively.

The two problems make those precursors useless, so they are clues to find whether or not a precursor works. For example, I successfully predicted the failure of the Parkfield prediction of the USGS in 1993, the Japanese "Tokai Network" in 1994, and the Los Angles prediction of JPL in 1999 mainly by the two problems. I can also disprove the Plate Theory by the two problems.

Some scientists may be angry at my view. If so, it is welcome to have any organized debate in writing in English by UN, Nature, a government or even by Iranian TV. I deeply believe in that the more debate about a truth, the more successful it will be.



Bam Tragedy 20040729

Some Tehran people asked me why I did not save the Bam victims. It is a good question, but is complicated due to some causes.

First, I did not get the satellite image until 17:36 UTC Dec. 24, 2003 because of a connection problem between my computer and the Internet, which delayed me over 3 days . However, I did predict the Bam earthquake [1] to the public at 17:58 UTC Dec. 25, 2003 according to the web time recorder. Afterward, I was working on narrowing windows, and gotten a much better prediction as "One M6.5 or more, or two M5.5 in the Bam fault within 35 days from Dec. 25, 2003 to Jan. 29, 2004". When I opened my email account to warn Bam people at about 17:30 Dec. 26, two congratulations: one from Turkish Scientist Cerit [15] and the other from Chinese Scientist Chen [16] had already been in the account. If the American government had recognized my work, I would have avoided such a tiny connection problem, and gotten time far more than enough to save Bam people.

Second, there still was a period of about 8 hours from my Bam prediction to the public at 17:58 UTC Dec. 25, 2003 to the Bam earthquake at 1:56 UTC Dec. 26. However, neither Iranian TV, not Iranian Radio reported such an important message to people during the period. By contrast, in your neighbor Turkey, media reported my NW Turkey prediction of Apr. 28, 2003 everywhere [17]. Moreover, I published my theory "Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor" in 1999[18], and predicted the 6.5 W Iran earthquake on Jun. 22, 2002 to the public successfully [19], while neither Iranian TV, not Iranian Radio reported them. As a result, no people in Iran had read my Bam prediction, while people in foreign countries had read it. If Iranian TV or Iranian Radio had reported my Bam prediction, or they had propagated my theory, and the success of my W Iran prediction, many victims would have survived.

The above details reveal that the both problems together made such an excellent prediction unable to save people.



The 6/12 Iran Cloud 20040731

Some Tehran people want to look at the process of the 6/12 Iran Cloud. Here they are [20]. It appeared at about 18:00 Jun. 12.



Mainstream Scientists 20040810

Mainstream scientists have done a great job. For example, they reported excellent phenomena. Referring to them, I establish my theory. They have also offered data, so I can prove my work in a low probability. On the other hand, some of them satisfy their comfortable life. For example, Chinese scientist Chen reported, "Some seismology experts of the State Seismology Bureau consider: It might require efforts by a few generations to figure out the mechanism of earthquakes and make accurate earthquake predictions." [21] It is to say that they get rid of their responsibility for people in earthquake hazard.

Some of others are ambitions, but they work maybe for fame. For example, a team of UCLA suddenly claimed their "success" and "discovery" after the 6.5 San Simeon, California earthquake at 35.7N,121.1W on Dec. 22, 2003. However, it is hard to understand how an earthquake, 300 km out of their studied area of about 32~35.5N and 114.6~118.0W [22], could be a success. If their "discovery" by foreshock is like a large gun to hit anyway they want, how far can it shoot, where is its favor direction, and why does not it work in the studied area? There are more questions, but I only propose one: If a 300 km away earthquake from a studied area within 9 months were a success of their "discovery", what would they call my Bam prediction, exactly in the predicted Fault AB [23] within 60 days?

Although the both look different, they are the same in selfishness. While they use up budgets without a real successful prediction, my theory can not prevent people from devastating earthquakes just due to no fund. As a result, new earthquake tragedy has been repeating somewhere again and again [24] just because of those authoritative experts who are too selfish to remember people in earthquake danger.



References

  1. Image 20031221 0:00 The Bam EQ Cloud, predicted to the public at17:58 UTC Dec. 25, 2003
  2. The Haicheng Earthquake and Its Prediction.Science & Utopya 65, 34 (1999)
  3. Chinese People Struggle Against Earthquake Disaster. Science & Utopya 65, 30~33 (1999)
  4. Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor. Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999)
  5. Image 20040703 22:00 Heat near Tehran
  6. Essay A990810 California Earthquake Situation Analysis
  7. Image 19990726 9:00 The black triangle & the border between California and Nevada
  8. Essay A020602The 7.0 Hector Mine, Southern California Earthquake Shows That I Am Right (Rewrite)
  9. Essay A020512The 5.1 New York Earthquake
  10. Map The 5.1 New York Earthquake by the USGS
  11. Image 20020308 18:00 New York geoeruption
  12. Image 20030722~23 Japan geoeruption
  13. Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y. & Mulargia, F. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science 275 , 1616-1617 (1997).
  14. Zhonghao Shou & Darrell Harrington. Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology UN/Islamic Republic of Iran Regional Workshop on the Use of Space Technology for Environmental Security, Disaster Rehabilitation and Sustainable Developmant presented by Iranian Scientist Amoli (aansari@Iran-irsc.com) Tehran, Iran. May 9, 2004
  15. Orhan Cerit: Head of Informatic Department, Cumhuriyet Univ., Turkey.
  16. Chen I-wan: Advisor of the Committee of National Hazard Prediction of China Geophysics Society, China.
  17. Page 14 The 5.6 Turkey prediction on Apr. 28, 2003, reported by Turkey media everywhere
  18. http://quake.exit.com/A991003.html Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor
  19. Image 20020420 7:00 The 6.5 W Iran prediction on Apr. 20, 2003
  20. Image 20040612~0613 The 6/12 Iran Cloud
  21. Chen, I-wan. Calls for Innovation Achievements Bringing Challenges to Traditional Basic Theories of Science and Technology. Impact of Science on Society No. 2 (2004) or http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guandian/1035/2668017.html People Daily in Chinese
  22. Map The team's studied area Their success was 300 km out of their studied area
  23. Image 20031221 0:00 The Bam Cloud in the globe
  24. Death Table


Home | Introduction | Publication & News | Predictions | New Predictions | Essays | Links | Contact

Sign Our GuestbookGuestbookView Our Guestbook

Updated: August 10, 2004 | Webmaster