EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My Response for Two Common Questions

- May 22, 2004 -

After the success of my Bam earthquake prediction, many people from different countries asked me if there would be a big earthquake in his or her hometown, or a place he or her would go. Many others wanted to know a web site of daily earthquake prediction for his or her hometown. I would like to give my response.

First, the success of my Bam earthquake prediction relied on a cold environment that immediately condensed the earthquake vapor into a cloud over the epicenter [1]. However, many earthquake clouds emerged far away from their relevant sources e.g. the 7.8 Turkey earthquake cloud appeared near Sri Lanka, 7,000 km away from the epicenter (40.74N, 29.86E), because of a hot surrounding [2].

Moreover, satellite data have a frequency of one every 1 to 6 hours from different satellites, and nothing sometimes; while a short-life earthquake cloud exists for about 30 minutes e. g. the 6.7 Northridge cloud existed for 35 minutes [3]. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the frequency into one every 15 minutes.

In addition, the delay from an earthquake cloud or a geoeruption to its subsequent event is various from a few hours to 103 days or so. In the early August 1999, I imaged that Chile would have no large earthquake for a period because its surrounding had kept cold for long time. However, a M6.4 earthquake occurred on Aug. 22, just a week after a geoeruption [4].

There are other serious problems, such as satellite data are not precise enough to distinguish a large earthquake from a group of moderate earthquakes [5], earthquake data have large error [6], and so on. Therefore, I am sorry for no idea to reply the first question without a fund to overcome the above problems. If one really worries about a devastating earthquake, such as the 7.8 Turkey earthquake, the 6.8 Bam and so on, please donate my work. (Note: I am not a beggar. I, myself, do not need any donation). For the second question, my response is "Sorry, I do not know."



References

  1. Image 20031221 0:00 This Bam EQ cloud emerged from the epicenter exactly due to a very cold surrounding at night of winter
  2. Image 19990716 6:00 to15:00 This Turkey EQ cloud did not appear near the epicenter (40.75N, 29.86E) due to a hot surrounding
  3. Photo R2-17 The 6.7 Northridge earthquake cloud existed only for 35 minutes on Jan. 8, 1994
  4. Image 19990815 15:00 The delay from this geoeruption to the 6.4 Chile earthquake was only a week
  5. Image 19991224 10:00 This 6M5 Indian EQ cloud looked just like a M7 cloud
  6. Essay A010515 Earthquake Database Problems


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