EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Thanks DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum

Thanks Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service

Thanks Quaqualita & Xanadu Ranch

- April 6, 2004 -

Quaqualita from the Dominican Republic brought our work to Xanadu Ranch, a retired American atmospheric physicist, and a moderator of the web site:DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum[1] . Afterward, a big debate began [2]. After carefully studying if our theory [3] works, Forum Moderator XanaduRanch gives it a positive conclusion, and is willing to help our work [2].

On March 3, 2004, I posted an earthquake cloud from the Dominican Republic and mentioned "A Caribbean EQ Cloud >=5"[4]. Afterward, I sent Quaqualita an image to reply her question about the epicenter [5].

DR1 Whether & Beyond Forum[5] admires our theory as a "discovery", and the prediction as "pretty impressive" after the 5.3 Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic earthquake in between Yamasa and Bonao on March 31, 2004.

Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service[6] reported that two earthquakes: an M4.6, and an M5.3 happened there, and "Shou's prediction was in location, time frame, and magnitude 100% correct" on April 1, 2004 [7].

I would like to mention an earthquake data problem from world sources for the 5.3 Santo Domingo earthquake. The table exhibits the data form five sources: GSRS, LDG, GFZ, News, and the USGS, which means other sources lose this earthquake. The data of the USGS are out of its Rank D for error over one degree, and so are the data of GSRS. Thus, I can not give them any comment. The data of Mix are not by measure, but by mixing the four sets of data from the four Europe sources, done by the Centre Sismologique Euro- Mediterraneen - European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (CSEM- EMSC) [8]. Therefore, there are four sets of data in Rank A. On the other hand, Rank A means error less than 0.1 degree, so they deny each other.

The best result should be the 5.3 Santo Domingo earthquake, at 18.73N, 70.23W, very close to C of the active Fault ABC, reported by the Dominican Republic itself. The fact that so many sources armed with the most modern instruments could not offer precise data for this earthquake suggests standardizing and unifying earthquake data, otherwise those data do not work as a rule to check and refer for earthquake prediction and other serious studies. The fact also reveals how hard without a fund to obtain suitable satellite data [9], and precise earthquake data [10],[11] to predict this earthquake is.

I would like also to mention that I am not a God who knows everything exactly without a fund. I am just a common person who needs a fund to overcome the data problems above [9], [10], [11], otherwise loss and mistakes are unavoidable. Therefore, to ask me if I can predict all large earthquakes exactly, but without a fund, is meaningless. A keen insight into our work is to ask themselves if they can answer our Two "Yes or No" Questions [12]. A keener insight is to ask arrogant American and Japanese seismologists, if every 1,000 of them could predict a devastating earthquake a year like mine, such as my 7.8 Mexico earthquake prediction [13], my 6.0 China [14], my 6.8 Bam [15], my 5.5 Pakistan [16] and so on. If not, whether they could share a part of their wasteful budgets for me to overcome satellite data problems. If so, all large impending epicenters will be able to be pinpointed out, and an evacuation will be possible.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum, Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service, and DR1 members Quaqualita, and Xanadu Ranch very much for their propagating our theory, and admiring our work, and hope them safe, healthy, and wealthy.



Table: Data of the Dominican Republic Earthquake on April 1, 2004 from Different Sources
DateTimeLatitude(N)Longitude(W)Depth(km)Magnitude(ML)RankSource
200404010:02:59.519.769.61005.0MGSRS
200404010:02:54.520.970.0 335.0ALAD
200404010:02:54.018.868.0 5.2MGFZ
200404010:02:46.618.770.2254.4MNews
200404010:02:52.019.769.5335.0MMix
200404010:02:54 18.8669.64794.3MUSGS



P.S.

I have to explain that I am not a doctor. I simply introduced myself to Mr. Amir Moniri. Earthquake Clouds and Short Term Prediction - An Interview with Mr. Zhonghao Shou"



References

  1. A web site: DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum
  2. A debate: Short term earthquake prediction? in DR1 Whether & Beyond Forum from Feb. 19 to March 7, 2004
  3. Article: Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor published by Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999)
  4. Page 17 of Predictions by Photos and Images A Caribbean EQ Cloud
  5. A thread: Short term earthquake prediction? View Single Post reported by DR1 Weather & Beyond Forum on April 1, 2004
  6. A web site: Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service
  7. A daily news: 5.3 earthquake in Santo Domingo, reported by Dominican Republic News & Travel Information Service on April 1, 2004
  8. A web site: CSEM- EMSC
  9. Essay A020804 Satellite Data Problems
  10. Essay A010515 Earthquake Database Problems
  11. Essay A020811 Problems of the World Earthquake Database of the U S Geological Survey
  12. Essay A020202 Our Two "Yes or No" Questions (Rewrite)
  13. Essay A030130 The 7.8 Mexico Earthquake & My Good Prediction
  14. Essay A030809 The 6.0 China Earthquake & My Prediction
  15. Essay A031230 My Iran Earthquake Prediction Is Admired as "A Very Great Job"
  16. Essay A040220 My Pakistan Earthquake Prediction Is Successful


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