EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My Iran Earthquake Prediction Is Admired as

"A Very Great Job" (renew)

- January 9, 2004 -

Turkish Professor Cerit [1] admires my Iran earthquake prediction "A very great job." Chinese Seismologist Chen [2] eulogizes, "We must congratulate you for your successful prediction." Indian TV Program Producer Malik [3] commends, "your great achievement.", Iranian Seismologist Raeesi [4] "deeply admire the great prediction", Iranian scientist Moniri [5] praises, "the excellent job", and so on. After checking the earthquake data [6], I found that my prediction is really great, but I felt sorry more than exciting.

The reason for exciting is my prediction, exhibited into our web site at 12:58 a.m. December 25 according to the web time recorder, to be really great. Fault AB in the area of latitude 27~30N, and longitude 58~60E [7], [8], covers the epicenter of 28.99N, 58.29E exactly. The coarse probability is 3.96% for a random guess as my prediction, "a M5 or more within 27~30N, 58~60E, and 103 days". The fine probability is 1.56% for "a M5.5 or more within 27~30N, 58~60E, and 60 days". The both small probabilities reveal the reliability of my theory again, and brings a hope to people in earthquake danger.

After showing the prediction to the Public, I was working on narrowing the windows continuously. I found three clouds, whose relevant earthquakes had already happened nearby [9], [10],[11] Comparing their sizes with that of the new cloud, I estimated the impending magnitude to be one M6.5 or more, or two M5.5. Counting on the three spans from the clouds to their relevant quakes, I narrowed the time window into 40 days since December 21 or 35 days since December 25. I was going to write an Iranian scientist, but the earthquake did faster than I.

The earthquake killed 25,000 and injured 30,000 [12], which makes me feel really sorry for the conflict between my work and the Society ignoring my work. Governments are accustomed to following scientists who have never made a correct earthquake prediction so far, many media to reporting tragedy, and people to digging or being dug after a devastating earthquake repeatedly.

Although it is silly to propose my suggestion again, I would like to wish governments, media, and people to change their customs, i.e. wish the Society to give me the data I need [13], so I will be able to pinpoint out every large impending epicenter independently on a cold surrounding like this example, and earthquake tragedy will be no more gradually.



Acknowledgement

I acknowledge Wenying Shou for support, Orhan Cerit, Chen I-wan, Shabri Malik, Mohammad Raeesi, Amir Moniri, and many people for admiring my Iran earthquake prediction, and Dundee University, UK and the Unite States Geological Survey for offering great satellite data, and earthquake data respectively. I also acknowledge Science & Utopya, Turkey; ABC TV, and Yahoo, USA; Amman TV, Jordan; The Chinese Central TV, Beijing, China; "In Search of..." of KAOS TV, USA; Pasadena Star News, San Gabriel Valley Tribune, and Whittier Daily News, California, USA; Jing News, Taiwan, and Hangzhou Daily, Zhejiang, China; and The Times of India News Service for reporting my work before (Some Turkish newspapers, journals, and TVs reported my work, but I have not received a copy, so I have no idea to acknowledge them here. However, I would like to add them when I receive copies with English version.)



References

  1. Orhan Cerit: Head of Informatic Department, Cumhuriyet Univ., Turkey.
  2. Chen I-wan: Advisor of the Committee of National Hazard Prediction of China Geophysics Society, China.
  3. Shabri Malik: Associate Producer, Miditech Pvt. Ltd. of The Science of the World , Indian National Channel, India
  4. Mohammad Raeesi: Seismologist, Iranian studying seismology in Norway.
  5. Amir Moniri: Earthquake Engineer, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering & Seismology, Tehran, Iran.
  6. Map20031226S Iran 6.8Ms by the USGS
  7. Image 20031221 0:00 The 6.8 S Iran EQ Cloud showed at 12:58 a.m. December 25, 2003.
  8. Image 20031221 0:00 The 6.8 S Iran EQ Cloud with more details
  9. Image 20030527 10:00 The 4.9 S Iran EQ Cloud
  10. Image 20030529 15:00 The 5.6 S Iran EQ Cloud
  11. Image 20030526 13:00 The 5.9 and 5.7 S Iran EQ Clouds
  12. Death Table1999 to Update
  13. Essay 020804 Satellite Data Problems
  14. SHOU.zip Animation of the Bam Cloud


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