EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 6.5 Central California Earthquake & Its Predictions

- December 25, 2003 -

On December 22, an M6.5 earthquake hit Central California at 35.70N, 121.10W, and 19:15 (UTC) [1]. Two people were killed. Are there predictions about it?

Yes, I predicted it by a cloud from NOAA to the Public on October 12 [2]. The location was in California, further marked with "E" near the bay area. The magnitude was more than or equal to 4.3. The probability for this prediction in a magnified area of latitude 35~40N, and longitude more than 120W within 103 days is 73%. Although the cloud was 300 km in length, indicting a M6, I could not distinguish whether or not the reason to form the length was due to the impending earthquake itself from due to the wind then because of lacking source.

Moreover, the state Office of Emergency Services predicted "a 90 percent or greater probability that aftershocks of 5.0 or greater would follow in the next week" [3]. Comparing my prediction before the earthquake with a probability of 73% with that of the state office after the earthquake with a probability of 90%, I think that my prediction may not be low.

I feel sorry for the US government not to offer me the data I need. As a result, the two people lost lives, and their relatives will lose a merry Christmas, and a happy new year.



References

  1. Map20031222M6.5 by the USGS
  2. Image 20031005 13:30 The 6.5 California EQ Cloud
  3. Aftershock forecast by the state Office of Emergency Services
  4. Aftershock forecast by the USGS Note: The USGS changes the probability of its prediction by elapsing, but the top in the beginning is 90%


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Updated: December 25, 2003 | Webmaster