EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 6.0 China Earthquake & My Prediction

- August 9, 2003 -

At 23:16 local time (15:16 UCT) on July 21, 2003, an M6 earthquake attacked Dayao (25.96N, 101.19E), Yunnan province, China [1]. It killed 16, and injured 584 people. It also killed 1,508 heads of livestock. A total of 24,000 residential houses collapsed, and 1,186,000 houses were damaged [2].

Whether did I predict it?

Yes, I predicted it on May 3. Thus, the time window was from May 3 to Jul. 27, 102 days from the cloud having emerged on Apr. 16 [3] . I had marked its epicenter by a letter "E" in the image and its magnitude ">=5.5"[4]. The four corner coordinates of "E" can be calculated by both "Adobe Photoshop" with its grids, and the crosses of the image. I had noted one by "30N, 100E". The area window I calculated is 25.8~26.7N, and 101.1~ 102.5E. A comparison between the earthquake and my prediction is:

 Time Latitude (N) Longitude (E) Magnitude
Prediction 5/3~7/2725.8~26.7 101.1~102.5>=5.5
Earthquake 7/21 15:16 25.96 101.19 6.0

Lacking source, I hard predicted the earthquake to the Public correctly, but it could not save those victims. I am sorry for the society. It costs $10 billion budget a year to report how many victims an earthquake causes, but does not support me to end the tragedies [5] .



References

  1. Map 20030721China6 Reported by the USGS
  2. China Earthquake OCHA Situation Report No. 2 on 24 Jul 2003 (UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)
  3. Image 20030416 0:00 The 6 Yunnan, China earthquake cloud
  4. Predictions by Photos and Images Page 13 on 4/16/2003
  5. Death


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