EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
The 6.4 Turkey Earthquake & My Prediction
- May 11, 2003 -
I exhibited an earthquake cloud on the southeast corner of the Caspian Sea, marked by arrow, in Image 20030329 11:00 [1], and predicted an earthquake of magnitude more than or equal to 6 within 70 days since April 6, 2003. Lacking data for the epicenter, I estimated its possible location from the northwest to the northeast of Iran, marked by "abcde", and had to wait until May 1, 2003, when the 6.4 Bingol, Turkey earthquake happened at 39.0N, 40.44E. Unfortunately, it killed 158 and injured 520 Turkish people, many of which were students. Who is the murder? "The earthquake" many people may reply. I would agree with them if the earthquake had happened before October 1999. However, I, now, have to say that this answer is not complete at least. First, I cited the Nature Debate [2] to imply that no studied precursor works for earthquake prediction. On the other hand, those ineffective precursors have been studied continuously, and seismologists in the world spend about $10 billion a year [3] without a successful earthquake prediction. Second, I published my theory to show how earthquakes happen, and how powerful Dehydration Theory is on earthquake prediction, and to reveal how data problems affect my work [4]. I explained the data problems in details [5], [6], [7], and appealed for support to solve them [8]. I persuaded scientists to give up those useless precursors [9], [10], [11], and even gave an excellent example [12], [13]. I suggested the USGS "using 0.05% of its budget to try my method" [14]. However, neither governments, nor people solved those data problems. Moreover, I successfully predicted the 6.4 Gulf of California earthquake this year [15], but the Society gives me neither a financial support, nor a medium support. In short, the Society cares of neither danger of earthquakes, nor waste of taxes. Third, worrying about a possible tragedy, I wrote an Iranian scientist for hourly temperature maps as compensation for the epicenter. However, there was no such map in Iran or nearby. Thus, the only way for me was to wait. On the other hand, the 6.4 Bingol earthquake happened within my time and magnitude windows, and near Mark "a". In addition, the time window in this case could be reduced into a few days according to my recent study. Therefore, the gap between a successful evacuation and the tragedy in this case was not remote. If the Society had supported my work a little, a successful evacuation in this case would have been possible. In summary, on one hand, official works on earthquake prediction obtain little success. On the other hand, my hopeful study could not work for a successful evacuation just for a step due to a lack of supports. Therefore, making the Society without a little responsibility is not appropriate al least. To avoid new tragedies, I hope the Society, including both governments and people, to feel duty-bound. |
![[1]](images2003/200303291100xIranCL.jpg){kind=link}
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