EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 6.5 Iran Earthquake on June 22, 2002

- June 30, 2002 -

The 6.5 Iran earthquake at 35.63N, 48.95E on June 22, 2002 [1]killed 500 and injured 1,600 people at least. Had I found a precursor for this tragedy? If so, what had I done for it? What is the problem affecting my work seriously?

First, I had found an earthquake cloud over Turkmenistan on April 21[2], exhibited it, and mentioned its magnitude equal to or more than 6 in our homepage on April 28, 2002 [3]. I had also exhibited a geoeruption [4] on the same day, and marked "A" as its epicenter, very close to the earthquake.

Because meteorological satellite images do not show the trace of an earthquake cloud, I could not make a relationship between the both precursors [2], [4]. However, I had guessed that the cloud might come from Iran or Pakistan. In Iran, there would be four possible places. Two most likely locations would be Mark "A" [4], and the area of about latitude 28~31N and longitude 57~60E.

Lucking resource, I wrote Amir Moniri, a very good Iranian Scientist, "I worry about a possible earthquake cloud over Turkmenistan. I don't have other data. If you find a sudden temperature increase, please inform me" on May 4. I wrote him again for a sudden temperature increase on May 12. However, it is very difficult for him to decide what a sudden increase of local temperature is without data. I remember that I felt a sudden increase of local temperature twice, one for the 7.0 Hector Mine earthquake and the other for the 5.0 New York, but I could not make a decision without a local, hourly temperature distribution.

I also wrote Linda Curtis, the secretary of the US Geological Survey, Pasadena and a very good American woman, "I know that there will be a M6 in Iran or Pakistan, and I want to catch it, but I don't have suitable satellite images to help me. As same as in Iran or Pakistan, in Southern California, the black triangle [5], including Palm Spring, Landers, Hector Mine, Imperial Valley, Volcano Lake (Mexico) is reactive. I want to catch it, but no suitable data helps me" on May 12.

All in all, I tried my best to capture the earthquake, but I could not do better without necessary data. Therefore, the actual difficulty of my work does not belong to a scientific problem, but a resource problem, including the both earthquake data [6], [7] and satellite image data. By contrast, about a million seismologists in the world cost about a billion dollars a year, but no one had offered a message for this earthquake like what I had done above. Moreover, it is not very hard for modern technology to expose the trace from an earthquake cloud to its source or an impending epicenter, so the difficulty of my work, in fact, does not belong to a technological problem, but a societal problem.

Unfortunately, I am poor on solving a societal problem. Various people have different purposes, doctrines, personalities, knowledge, and so on, which are very hard to change. For example, some seismologists have an earthquake prediction phobia, but I do not medicine for it. For another example, I need a financial support to overcome those data problems, but people ignore my request. Therefore, the real tragedy is not due to earthquakes, but due to the society.



References

  1. The 6.5 Iran Earthquake on June 22, 2002, reported by the USGS
  2. Image 20020421 2:00. The 6.5 Iran earthquake cloud
  3. Page 9. The 6.5 Iran earthquake prediction on April 21, 2002
  4. Image 20020420 7:00. The 6.5 Iran Geoeruption
  5. Image 20020607 12:30. A Southern California Geoeruption, >=6, maybe within 3 months
  6. Earthquake Database Problems
  7. My Prediction No. 23 Is Correct


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