EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My Prediction No. 23 Is Correct

- 8/2/2000 -

On May 28, 1997, I predicted that an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 ML or more would occur in Turkey or the Mediterranean Sea from May 28 to July 11. However, there was only a M4.2 in the predicted windows in the World Earthquake Database.

I had to tolerate my mistake, but I could not persuade myself to accept such a fact because the cloud was long enough to reach 5.5 ML.

After the 7.4 Turkey earthquake in 1999, many Turkish people wrote me, and I replied all their questions. Meanwhile, I asked some of them for help to give me their earthquake data relating to this prediction, but no response was obtained. Thus, I still wondered about why a long earthquake cloud indicated a small earthquake.

After receiving earthquake data from Taiwan and Tokyo, I more doubted about whether or not the World Earthquake Database missed this earthquake I had predicted. However, I only found a M4.5 in the renewed Would Earthquake Database in 2000.

On July 28, Mr. Resat Dengic, a good Turkish man, mailed me the data, and I found the earthquake I had predicted. My prediction No. 23 is correct.

One thing I must mention is that the purpose of my showing the above fact is only to explain why I will correct the data of my prediction No. 23 in my prediction table.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge Mr. Resat Dengic for mailing me the data.

The following table reveals the prediction and its related largest earthquakes in various times or databases.

 Date Location Size
The prediction 5/28~7/11 Turkey or The Med. Sea (25~35E) >=5.5 ML
The data from the USGS in 1997 6/4 15:04 36.62N, 26.44E4.2 mb
The data from the USGS in 2000 6/30 21:48 36.63N, 31.41E4.5 mb
The data from Turkey 6/1 12:54 36.16N, 31.3E 5.6 ML


Evidences and References



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