Using Very Simple Tools and Producing Very Accurate Predictions, This Chinese Earthquake Researcher Says that His Prediction Work Has Been Motivated by A Sense of Responsibility.
Zhonghao Shou, having noticed an earthquake precursor Earthquake Clouds for more than nine years, has been living in America since 1993 accidentally for a debate about the prediction in medium California. Meanwhile, he predicted 40 earthquakes, and formed his theory and method.
"Although having a few simple tools, such as a printer, a computer, a compass, a few maps, a number of satellite images, photographs, and articles, the Earthquake Prediction Center works very well" Chinese researcher Zhonghao Shou described his simple center from Pasadena, California by e-mail.
He also said, "Many universities and institutes spend a lot of money every year, but no one of them predicts earthquakes as well as ours."
His Amazing Journey Began From His First Prediction Nine Years Ago
Interviewed by a TV station in the Middle East for a special TV program called "Global Trends" in later October, Shou introduced his earthquake clouds theory to 17 million audiences in Jordan, Egypt, Israel and so on. In early October, his article for propagating earthquake clouds method was published in Turkey. His theory has not been approved by the main stream academicians of America, but it is getting more and more attention because of many recent large earthquakes in the world.
On June 20, 1990, Shou made his first prediction in his hometown, Hangzhou, China. He saw a single, long line-shaped cloud, whose tail pointed toward a northwest direction. Eighteen hours later, a 7.7 earthquake happen in Iran and caused 370, 000 deaths and injuries. Shou deeply believed that there was a strong relationship between the cloud and the big earthquake. Henceforth, he started his amazing story of predicting earthquakes.
Chinese Ancestors Predicted Earthquakes By Earthquake Clouds
Ancient Chinese and Italians studied special clouds to predict earthquakes. Shou mentioned that the Chronicle of Lon-De County (35.7 E, 106.1 N) in Ningxia province, China, 300 years ago (recompiled in 1935) recorded, "It was sunny and warm; the sky was blue and clear. Suddenly, there appeared threads of a black cloud spanning the sky like a long snake. The cloud stayed for a long time, so there would be an earthquake."
Following this message, Shou found its corresponding earthquake, the 7.0 Guyuan (36.5 N, 106.3 E), Ningxia earthquake on October 25, 1622. It was the only big one in the western China (< 110 E) within 148 years from July 26, 1561 to October 13, 1709. Shou thought that this earthquake prediction was the first successful one in the world.
Shou Wanted To Make His Predictions More Accurate
It was an accident for Shou to get into earthquake prediction. In 1992, Zhonghao Shou, 51 years old, retired from his work of both chemical analysis and products control in Hangzhou. He came to California in May, 1993. He only planed to stay in California for a short time because he had a contract with a factory for his patent, but two events, the failure of the Parkfield Prediction on November 15, 1993 and the 6.7 Northridge Earthquake on January 17, 1994, made him change his plans.
Foreseeing the failure of the Parkfield Prediction, and having missed the chance to report to the USGS the Northridge Earthquake of two days before the earthquake made him feel that he had duty to stay in America and to develop his theory. Especially, the Northridge earthquake prediction impressed his mind deeply. When he went to the USGS on January15, Saturday, there was nobody in the office. He imaged that the offices in America might be like those in his hometown where someone was in an office at any time even though there was no earthquake in its history. The fact made him surprised.
For 6 years, Shou's prediction team has been gaining certain in size, having 5 members now. They made 40 predictions, signed by the USGS. The majority of the predictions are very accurate in probabilities, but their time, area, and size windows are still big. How to make predictions more exact may need more precise instruments and more sufficient data of surface wind velocities to improve the quality of their predictions.
(It will continue)